I know that the Padres really want to trade Jake Peavy, but there are no good suitors left. The Braves dropped out when free agency started, and the Cubs have many obstacles to overcome. They need to fit him into the payroll as well as get a solid package together. I really don’t see what the Cubs have to offer, to the Padres or to a different team in the event of a three-team trade. Lou Pinella says that they’re not interested, anyway.
The Braves still make the most sense. I know that Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward are off limits, so the Padres will have to accept an offer centered around Yunel Escobar. Back in October, I thought that Tommy Hanson, Yunel Escobar, and Jordon Schafer would be an accpetable package. The Braves apparently thought that would be way too much. Their offer was Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton. That’s not even close to what the Pads wanted. I don’t blame them for declining.
A lot of people think that Padres’ GM Kevin Towers screwed up the negotiations, but I think he was doing a very good job. This is not like the Johan Santana situation where you have to trade the player, even if you take a bad offer. They have Peavy under contract for 4 more years. If they can’t trade him now, deal him at this year’s trade deadline. If you can’t trade him then, flip him next offseason. Continue until Peavy is gone. Unless the Braves come back with a much better offer than the one before, it looks like Peavy will be staying put.
I have a feeling that the Braves will come back, though. Whether they sign another top-of-the-rotation starter like Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett will make no difference. If they truly want to compete, they’ll need more than just Lowe or Burnett. Peavy plus a Lowe or Burnett would make them serious contenders for the NL East. They will probably pursue Peavy even harder if they miss out on Lowe or Burnett. I think a package of Yunel Escobar, Jordon Schafer, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, and Tyler Flowers would get it done. The Padres still get a very good deal, and the Braves are able to keep Tommy Hanson. This seems like a good compromise for both sides.
If the Braves are truly out of the picture, look for the Angels or Yankees to get involved. Whichever team that misses out on CC Sabathia could put in a huge bid. Could you imagine if the Angels signed Mark Teixera and added Jake Peavy? They would be unstopable. The Yanks could also use him, but the two teams might not be able to find a match with the prospects.
I really don’t know where Jake Peavy will end up. He might stay put, he might get traded to the Braves, and he might even go to a surprise team. I don’t know.
It is looking more and more likely that the Braves are going to be big players for Jake Peavy this winter. They have the need, the money, and the prospects to get a deal done. The popular package right now would be the Padres sending Jake Peavy along with Khalil Greene to the Braves for Tommy Hanson, Yunel Escobar, and Jordon Schafer. The Padres add a great pitching prospect, their shortstop of the future, and their center fielder of the future all in one deal. The Braves bring in an ace under team control for many years. They also add a player in Greene that might be extra motivated in his contract year to replace Yunel Escobar. If he has a good year, he might even want to resign with the club since they play on the east coast. If not, the Braves still have Brent Lillibridge waiting in the wings. It will hurt for them to lose those three great young players, but they’re all expendable to certain degrees. Because of Jason Heyward, Schafer would be moved to a corner possition, anyway. He wouldn’t be very valuable there. Tommy Hanson is a great pitching prospect and is very under rated, but the Braves are good at drafting, so they could replace him with the right picks. Escobar is replaced by Greene and Lillibridge. So it hurts losing these guys, but to bring in a legitimate ace under contract for four years, it’s worth it. These teams could both get cold feet and decide not to make the trade, but it sure could happen.
I haven’t done a player market in a while. There have been some rumors that the Padres could shop Jake Peavy around this winter. A lot of teams will be interested. Lets break it down.
Padres. (frontrunners) Even though the Pads will likely shop him around, I don’t think they’ll get the offer they want. I doubt they trade the face-of-the-franchise unless their blown out of the water.
Braves. (possible) They seem to be very interested, despite the possibility of redestroying their farm system the same way they did during the Mark Teixera trade. Also, since they have so much money to spend it might be smarter to sign a guy like Derek Lowe instead of trading the farm for Peavy. They could offer any group from this package: Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Jordon Schafer, Brent Lillibridge, Brandon Jones, and others. Yunel Escobar and Khalil Greene could be part of a deal, too. So you can see they have the stuff. Peavy wants to go there on top of it. This one could work out.
Rays (possible) There is no frontrunner to aquire Peavy because he’ll probably stay. The Rays do make some sense, however. How about a package of Matt Gaza, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, Desmond Jennings and Edwin Jackson. The Padres add two established starters, a high upside one, and get their future replacements for Brian Giles and Khalil Greene. The Padres would be at least tempted to take this offer. I don’t know if the Rays would offer it, however. With the Yankees possibly getting CC Sabathia, and the Red Sox possibly getting Ben Sheets, the Rays could jump in and add an ace for a second playoff push. And with those three aces, watch out if they do get in. Plus, Peavy wouldn’t just be a rent-a-player, since he’s signed for four more years with a club option for a fifth. Very cheap, too. It is possible that both teams say no, but both could also say yes.
Dodgers (not likely) I know they are in the same division as the Padres, so they’d have to pay a higher price than other teams. It would be risky for the Dodgers, but there could be a huge benefit. The Dodgers would have the pieces by offering someone out of the Matt Kemp, Clayton Kersaw, James McDonald, Chin-Lung Hu range. Who knows, it might take all of them. They have a chance.
Cardinals (not likely) They have been named as a possibility because they have Colby Rasmus to offer. They’d have to give up their best prospect, other prospects, and all of their money to get Peavy. With all of the other holes the Cards have, I don’t know if they would want to do that.
Red Sox (not likely) I don’t know if they have the pieces, but they’ll have to at least check in. It might be smarter for them to sign CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets, anyway. Why give out top prospects when you could just sign a starter for big money. It doesn’t make a lot of sense for them.
Yankees (not likely) They’ll at least try aquiring Jake, but I don’t know if they have the pieces to get it done. Even if they do, wouldn’t it just be smarter to overpay and sign Sabathia than to sell the farm for Peavy. I could only see this if they miss out on CC. I would be surprised to see him go there, even with Sabathia not in the Bronx.
Rangers (not likely) They would love to have him, and also have the pieces to aquire him. The only problem is Peavy’s no-trade-clause. Why would he waive it to go from Petcoe Park to Arlington. He has set himself up for another big contract after this one ends. He could lose millions by playing at Arlington over Petcoe. If one of the teams would pay him 20 million, he might waive it. But then the contract turns from what is an affordable 60 million to 80 million for 4 years. That isn’t much of a bargain anymore. So if Peavy didn’t have a NTC, then he could be a Ranger, but the problem is that he does.
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There’s bound to be a lot of teams looking in to signing Rafael Furcal this winter. With several teams interested in shortstops and lead-off men, Furcal should have a huge market. Lets look at some interested parties.
Dodgers (frontrunners) They want and need Furcal to return. Look at their record at the begining of the year with Furcal compared to without. He is their spark-plug, and I think he will be their number 1 offseason priority. Rafeal was stated that he would like to stay, as well.
Royals (frontrunners) The Royals would love to add a Rafael Furcal type of player. They could move Matt Aviles to second base, something they want to do. Furcal would probably only require a 3 year deal, so Mike Moustakes will be coming up just when Rafael’s deal is ending. They add a speedy lead-off man to pair with David DeJesus at the top of that lineup. This team makes a lot of sense and the Royals will most likely be big players for Furcal.
Blue Jays (frontrunners) The Blue Jays make a lot of sense for Furcal as well. They have been without a leadoff man for a long time, and their two shortstops, Marco Scutaro and John McDonald aren’t great options. They could be possible trade chips, however. This team is a great fit for Rafeal Furcal.
A’s (possible) It is possible the Oakland A’s decide to go after a free agent or two for possible contention in 2010. They badly need a leadoff man, and even though they don’t need a shortstop they could still sign Furcal and then trade current shortstop Bobby Crosby. They haven’t had a good lead-off man in forever, and they now have the chance to get one if they shell out big bucks.
Cardinals (possible) It seems as though the Cardinals are going to be spending a lot this offseason. They need pitching and middle infield help. The Cards have no speed in their lineup, and Furcal would add a ton. The Cardinals might want to devote their money towards starting pitching, however.
Reds (possible) The Reds need a shortstop and a lead-off man. So they are a natural fit for Furcal. They have many holes, however, and may decide to spread out their money like the Cardinals could possibly do. This might be smarter than using almost half of it in one place.
Twins (slim chance) The Twins are sure to be interested, but don’t have that much money to spend. It may be smarter for them to target a shortstop via trade instead of free agency. Everyone wants pitching, and the Twins are one of the few teams with a surplus.
Braves (Dark Horse) Wouldn’t it be crazy if Furcal signed back with his former team, the Braves. Yes, they have Yunel Escobar, but they could move him to second base. Yes, they have Kelly Johnson there, but he could be a trade candidate. The Braves haven’t had a good leadoff man since Rafeal was there, so why not just bring him back. They could then trade Johnson for a starting pitcher or a left fielder. This could work.