I decided to take the holidays off. Sorry I didn’t let you know before hand.
In an attempt to clear salary, the Cubs have traded Mark DeRosa to the Indians for minor league pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub. Another trade is in place that would send Jason Marquis to the Rockies for pitcher Luis Vizcaino.
I really like the Marquis trade for both teams. The Cubs will throw in 1 million and take on the entire 3.5 million owed to Vizcaino. So, it is a net dump of about 5 million. Dropping that 5 million will bring the Cubs’ payroll down to about 132 million. The final payroll will be in the 140-145 million dollar range. That leaves 8 to 13 million to spend; enough to sign a big bat for right field. Guys like Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Bobby Abreu can be squeezed into the payroll now. Vizcaino provides depth. If he bounces back to form, it will give the Cubs another solid arm for the late innings. If not, then the Cubs can just release him. This is a solid trade for them.
The Rockies got a good deal, too. They receive a quality starting pitcher to slot into their rotation. He comes cheaply, too; only 5 million in net gain. They could’ve signed a guy like Tim Redding instead and gotten similar production, but Redding will probably require a 2 year deal at around the 5 million Marquis gets. So they get similar production and cut off a year. Good job by the Rox.
I’ll be honest by saying that I completely hate the DeRosa trade for the Cubs. This is a fantastic move by the Indians. The 3 prospects the Cubs have coming their way aren’t much at all. Jeff Stevens has some nice potential as a relief pitcher, but he isn’t any better than Jose Ceda, the player they sent to the Marlins in the Kevin Gregg trade. Yes, Gregg will be an important piece to the team by setting up for Carlos Marmol, but he is no where near as valuable as Mark DeRosa. Still, Stevens is a solid piece that could develop and give the Cubs some help in the pen. He has fantastic stuff. John Gaub also has good stuff; he struck out 100 batters in only 64 innings. He is a relief prospect at best, though. Good middle relievers are necessary to any team hoping to compete; Stevens and Gaub at least have the stuff to become very good ones. Plus, they are under control for 6 years as opposed to DeRosa’s 1 year under contract. The other prospect, Chris Archer, is more of a throw-in than a solid piece.
To help offset the move, the Cubs signed Aaron Miles for 2 years, 4.9 million. He is a solid middle infielder, and should keep the second base position respectable. He and Mike Fontenot could form a nice platoon at the bottom of the Cubs lineup.
I guess that this return isn’t terrible, but I expected more if the team were to trade DeRo. The trade may work out in the long run, but I don’t understand why the Cubs are going to hurt their team this year. It doesn’t make any sense at all unless…
Jake Peavy is the next move. Dumping the 5.5 million owed to DeRosa and the 9.9 million owed to Marquis opens up a lot of money. However, the Cubs will pay 1 million of Marquis’ contract and they take on the 3.5 million owed to Vizcaino as well as signing Miles for 2.2 million in the first year. So, these two trades dump a net total of about 9 million. Payroll is reduced all the way down to 128 million. This leaves the Cubs with 12 to 17 million to spend. I know that it’s unlikely that they can fit both a right fielder like Milton Bradley and Jake Peavy into the payroll, but it sure is possible. Hopefully, the Tribune company would be willing to extend payroll to about 150 million to accommodate these moves, if it allows Peavy to come to town. All they have to do is sign Bradley for 2 years, 20 million. Then, take on Jake Peavy’s contract of 11 million per year. It could fit. If not, then just backload Bradley’s contract. They’ll have to let Rich Harden leave after ’09, but that’s OK if Peavy is brought in. Of course, even if all of these finances are possible, the Cubs need to work out a trade. I think that they have the pieces after the DeRosa move. It could be a 3 team trade that looks like this…
- Padres get: Josh Vitters, Sean Marshall, Ronny Cedeno, Garret Olson, Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub.
- Cubs get: Jake Peavy
- Orioles get: Felix Pie
A trade similar to this one was accepted by Kevin Towers, but Jim Hendry declined because he couldn’t get ownership approval. Who knows, maybe now that Marquis and DeRosa are gone the trade could come back to life. It’s doubtful, but that is the only reason I can see for trading Mark DeRosa. Maybe they just needed to clear all of his salary. I don’t know.
By the way, DeRosa deleted everything he wrote on his MLBlog, The Pulse. It will now focus solely on the Indians.
The framework of a trade that would send Jake Peavy to the Cubs is in place. It would be a complicated 4-team trade, but apparently it makes sense to the GMs. The Cubs, Padres, Phillies, and Orioles would be the 4 teams. The Phillies and Orioles are satisfied by their part of the deal. The only part left of the trade would be whom the Cubs send to the Padres. I’m not sure on this, but guessing a trade would look like this.
- Cubs get: Jake Peavy
- Padres get: Josh Vitters, Garret Olson, Jason Donald, Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall
- Orioles get: Felix Pie
- Phillies get: Mark DeRosa
- Cubs lose: Mark DeRosa, Josh Vitters, Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall
- Padres lose: Jake Peavy
- Orioles lose: Garret Olson
- Phillies lose: Jason Donald
It looks like a trade like this could be completed, but first the Cubs will need to clear salary by trading Jason Marquis. It looks like all they have to do is pull the trigger on a Marquis trade and they’ll be able to make this huge, blockbuster trade. Overcourse, this deal needs to make sense for all teams.
The Cubs would be aquiring Jake Peavy. Adding him to setup a rotation of Peavy – Carlos Zambrano – Rich Harden – Ryan Dempster – and Ted Lilly would make the Cubs the unquestioned best team in the MLB. Yes, their whole entire farm system is getting traded away, but I think it’s definately worth it. Vitters, Pie, Cedeno, and Marshall all are blocked, anyway. It hurts losing DeRosa, but you have to give something to get something.
This looks like a pretty solid deal for the Padres, too. The get a great
prospect in Josh Vitters to take over at third base in the future. They can shop Kevin Kouzmanoff until Vitters hits the big leagues. The Pads can take their time, because he is at least 2 years away from prime-time ball. Jason Donald is a solid shortstop prospect; he adequately replaces Khalil Greene. Cedeno provides depth. Garret Olson and Sean Marshall are by no means top notch pitching prospects, but they add depth to the back of the Padres’ rotation. Because of PETCO Park, it will be easy to find pitching. This is arguably just as good as the Braves’ offer of Yunel Escobar, Goyrks Hernandez, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton. It is just a more crafty way of doing it. I like this trade for the Padres, even though I admit they could do better if they wait until the trade deadline.
It’s a no-brainer for the Orioles to make the trade. Garret Olson doesn’t have the same upside as Felix Pie. They have both been awful in the MLB, but Pie has been given less of a chance. I know that they both look like busts right now, but Pie has a much better chance at becoming a quality player than Olson does. Maybe it’s just because I’ve seen Pie play so many times while watching the Cubs. It appears that the Orioles also like the idea of swaping Olson out for Pie, and I agree with them.
It also makes sense for the Phillies. Mark DeRosa was a great player last year. He was a
huge reason why the Cubs won 97 games, and it would hurt them lose DeRo, but it seems the Cubs are open to this trade. The Phillies are reportedly really high on Donald, but it just seems like they would trade him for DeRosa in a heartbeat. Donald is blocked, and DeRo makes more sense than anyone else on the free agent market. He can play second base until Chase Utley returns from his injury, and then he can move to left field, replacing Pat Burrell. Eric Bruntlett, Greg Dobbs, and Geoff Jenkins would play left field or second base until Utley returns. This would be a great idea for Philly. The only problem is that they’re making it a lot harder to get back to the World Series by assisting the Cubs in aquiring Peavy.
So I think this huge, blockbuster, 4-team trade would make a lot of sense for all the clubs involved, but one little snag in negotiations could ruin the whole thing. I hope it happens!
The Cubs, Padres, and Orioles are discussing a trade that would send Jake Peavy to Chicago. The Orioles would recieve outfielder Felix Pie while dealing Garret Olsen to the Padres. The Cubs would add other prospects to try to finish off a trade. I don’t understand how this puts the Cubs in a better position to satisfy the Padres needs. I think the Pads would rather have Pie than Olsen. Felix has always been the better prospect, and both have been awful in the MLB. On top of this, the Padres probably don’t want Josh Vitters. He is the only big time prospect that the Cubs have. I don’t think an eventual trade like this will ever end up happening; it just makes too little sense.
Padres’ GM Kevin Towers thinks he has identified the third team for a possible Jake Peavy to the Cubs trade. He failed to reveal it, but I will name two teams who could make sense: the A’s and the Giants.
A’s. The A’s really need a third baseman of the future. Josh Vitters is the Cubs’ prospect most likely to be dealt in a Peavy trade, but the Pads don’t want him because if their own log jam at the hot corner. The A’s have a ton of pitching depth, and Vitters just makes too much sense for their team. Maybe a pitcher like Brett Anderson could get it done. So the trade would be looking like this…
- Cubs get: Jake Peavy
- Padres get: Brett Anderson, Felix Pie, Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Tony Thomas
- A’s get: Josh Vitters
Giants. They also have some pitching to spare. There is a big hole at third base, and an aquisition like Vitters should fill that hole in the long run. The Giants could send either Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner. The only problem with this is that both the Padres and the Giants are in the same division. I don’t think the Giants would want to be trading one of their best prospects to a team in their division, and I also don’t think the Padres would want to help the Giants get Vitters. If a deal could be worked out, it would look like this…
- Cubs get: Jake Peavy
- Padres get: Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner, Felix Pie, Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Tony Thomas
- Giants get: Josh Vitters
I doubt the Cubs are able to pull off a trade for Peavy, because even in these two instances, the Padres don’t get much. I find a trade with the Braves much more likely. If not to the Braves, he’ll stay put.
I know that the Padres really want to trade Jake Peavy, but there are no good suitors left. The Braves dropped out when free agency started, and the Cubs have many obstacles to overcome. They need to fit him into the payroll as well as get a solid package together. I really don’t see what the Cubs have to offer, to the Padres or to a different team in the event of a three-team trade. Lou Pinella says that they’re not interested, anyway.
The Braves still make the most sense. I know that Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward are off limits, so the Padres will have to accept an offer centered around Yunel Escobar. Back in October, I thought that Tommy Hanson, Yunel Escobar, and Jordon Schafer would be an accpetable package. The Braves apparently thought that would be way too much. Their offer was Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton. That’s not even close to what the Pads wanted. I don’t blame them for declining.
A lot of people think that Padres’ GM Kevin Towers screwed up the negotiations, but I think he was doing a very good job. This is not like the Johan Santana situation where you have to trade the player, even if you take a bad offer. They have Peavy under contract for 4 more years. If they can’t trade him now, deal him at this year’s trade deadline. If you can’t trade him then, flip him next offseason. Continue until Peavy is gone. Unless the Braves come back with a much better offer than the one before, it looks like Peavy will be staying put.
I have a feeling that the Braves will come back, though. Whether they sign another top-of-the-rotation starter like Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett will make no difference. If they truly want to compete, they’ll need more than just Lowe or Burnett. Peavy plus a Lowe or Burnett would make them serious contenders for the NL East. They will probably pursue Peavy even harder if they miss out on Lowe or Burnett. I think a package of Yunel Escobar, Jordon Schafer, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, and Tyler Flowers would get it done. The Padres still get a very good deal, and the Braves are able to keep Tommy Hanson. This seems like a good compromise for both sides.
If the Braves are truly out of the picture, look for the Angels or Yankees to get involved. Whichever team that misses out on CC Sabathia could put in a huge bid. Could you imagine if the Angels signed Mark Teixera and added Jake Peavy? They would be unstopable. The Yanks could also use him, but the two teams might not be able to find a match with the prospects.
I really don’t know where Jake Peavy will end up. He might stay put, he might get traded to the Braves, and he might even go to a surprise team. I don’t know.
The Braves are out of the Jake Peavy bidding, or at least for now. They were unsatisfied by the price. Peavy demanded that the club option for the fifth year be picked upon any trade. That would make it a 5 year, 80 million contract. It’s still a huge discount, but the Braves apperantly thought it would be a smarter idea to sign a free agent like Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett to a cheaper contract while hanging on to their top prospects. Too bad because I was just about to write about how the Braves would pursue Rafeal Furcal in the event of a Yunel Escobar trade. It’s still possible they deal him, but I doubt it happens.
The Padres will have to move on to other teams, but there were never many good fits. I still think the Rays make sense. Wade Davis, Edwin Jackson, and Reid Brignac makes a whole lot of sense. The Rays would have by far the best rotation in the AL and maybe even the MLB. Their team would be unstopable. They would still have Andy Sonnanstine as a trade chip, also. Could you imagine a rotaion of Jake Peavy-Scott Kazmir-James Shield-Matt Garza-David Price! The latter is a huge breakout candidate on top of all that. Evan Longoria will continue making strides, Rocco Baldelli could come back to have big year if the Rays give him the full-time DH spot. Most people think that once the Yankees add pitchers like Sabathia and Burnett, and if the Red Sox add Mark Texiera and/or a starter, the Rays will be completely out of it. I disagree because of all their break-out candidates.
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs are the frontrunners to land Jake Peavy. I find this amazing, as the Cubs don’t have much left in their farm system. They traded most of it to the A’s in the Rich Harden trade. Apparently, that is fine with the Padres, however, as they are still willing to deal with the Cubs. Josh Vitters is the Cubs unquestioned top prospect, but the Pads have two top notch young third basemen on their team. They could trade for Vitters and then turn around and deal Kevin Kouzmanoff. I previously stated that Kevin Kouzmanoff for Brett Anderson would make sense. They could pull off that trade to help out their pitching while improving third base. Then, instead of moving Chase Headly to third base they could keep him in left field and slot Vitters in at third. You’d also think that one of the Cubs good young relievers would have to be included. If the Cubs manage to resign Kerry Wood, then Carlos Marmol could be in play. Marmol and Heath Bell would make a nice 8th-9th inning combination for at least the next 4 years. Or, the Padres could decide to opt for Jeff Samardzija instead. They might view him as a better option since he could start or relieve. The final pieces could be Sean Marshall, Felix Pie, and Rich Hill. Marshall was solid in his limited opportunities last year, and he won’t be needed if Dempster is resigned. The latter two have seen huge drops in value but both still have imense potential. They make sense as two high-risk high-reward players to round out the deal. I think Hill would flourish without dealing with the pressure of Chicago. Same for Pie. So the final offer would be Josh Vitters, Carlos Marmol/Jeff Samardzija, Sean Marshall, Felix Pie, and Rich Hill for Jake Peavy. I’m not sure I would do it if I was the Padres, but with the Braves not offering Tommy Hanson, it might be the only option. However, this deal would give the Cubs less flexibility when it comes to free agents. They’d still want Ryan Dempster back even if they do aquire Peavy, but they would really need Kerry Wood if they’re losing one of Carlos Marmol and Jeff Samardzija. On top of all that, they would have to settle for a cheap right fielder instead of a better one like Bobby Abreu. However, when you look at the kind of impact a Peavy trade has, it doesn’t matter much; you’re going to improve your team. Hopefully they will me able to win it all next year and finally make their fans proud.
I dissmissed the Rangers in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, not because they didn’t have the pieces to get a deal done, but because Peavy would’t waive his no-trade-clause to go to Arlington. However, if the Rangers really had their heart set on getting Peavy, they could offer Peavy more money. Or they could offer more prospects and get the Padres to give Peavy money to compensate. They could even get a third team involved to help pay it. But, maybe he would get a reward of a new 6 year, 120 million dollar contract to compensate for him going to the Rangers. I could see it. The only problem is that the Rangers would have to pay the massive contract as well as many good prospects. A team with a big wallet could decide to go this route, however. If the Yankees miss out on CC Sabathia, and Peavy really doesn’t want to go to New York, a deal like this could be struck. The Yankees could trade Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson among others for Peavy. That satisfies the Padres. Then they could throw out Peavy’s old contract and sign him to a new 6 year, 120 million dollar deal. I think the Yanks would be getting ripped off, but Hank Steinbrenner seems to have his heart set on getting an ace pitcher. If Hank wants something, he’ll get it.
It is looking more and more likely that the Braves are going to be big players for Jake Peavy this winter. They have the need, the money, and the prospects to get a deal done. The popular package right now would be the Padres sending Jake Peavy along with Khalil Greene to the Braves for Tommy Hanson, Yunel Escobar, and Jordon Schafer. The Padres add a great pitching prospect, their shortstop of the future, and their center fielder of the future all in one deal. The Braves bring in an ace under team control for many years. They also add a player in Greene that might be extra motivated in his contract year to replace Yunel Escobar. If he has a good year, he might even want to resign with the club since they play on the east coast. If not, the Braves still have Brent Lillibridge waiting in the wings. It will hurt for them to lose those three great young players, but they’re all expendable to certain degrees. Because of Jason Heyward, Schafer would be moved to a corner possition, anyway. He wouldn’t be very valuable there. Tommy Hanson is a great pitching prospect and is very under rated, but the Braves are good at drafting, so they could replace him with the right picks. Escobar is replaced by Greene and Lillibridge. So it hurts losing these guys, but to bring in a legitimate ace under contract for four years, it’s worth it. These teams could both get cold feet and decide not to make the trade, but it sure could happen.
I haven’t done a player market in a while. There have been some rumors that the Padres could shop Jake Peavy around this winter. A lot of teams will be interested. Lets break it down.
Padres. (frontrunners) Even though the Pads will likely shop him around, I don’t think they’ll get the offer they want. I doubt they trade the face-of-the-franchise unless their blown out of the water.
Braves. (possible) They seem to be very interested, despite the possibility of redestroying their farm system the same way they did during the Mark Teixera trade. Also, since they have so much money to spend it might be smarter to sign a guy like Derek Lowe instead of trading the farm for Peavy. They could offer any group from this package: Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Jordon Schafer, Brent Lillibridge, Brandon Jones, and others. Yunel Escobar and Khalil Greene could be part of a deal, too. So you can see they have the stuff. Peavy wants to go there on top of it. This one could work out.
Rays (possible) There is no frontrunner to aquire Peavy because he’ll probably stay. The Rays do make some sense, however. How about a package of Matt Gaza, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, Desmond Jennings and Edwin Jackson. The Padres add two established starters, a high upside one, and get their future replacements for Brian Giles and Khalil Greene. The Padres would be at least tempted to take this offer. I don’t know if the Rays would offer it, however. With the Yankees possibly getting CC Sabathia, and the Red Sox possibly getting Ben Sheets, the Rays could jump in and add an ace for a second playoff push. And with those three aces, watch out if they do get in. Plus, Peavy wouldn’t just be a rent-a-player, since he’s signed for four more years with a club option for a fifth. Very cheap, too. It is possible that both teams say no, but both could also say yes.
Dodgers (not likely) I know they are in the same division as the Padres, so they’d have to pay a higher price than other teams. It would be risky for the Dodgers, but there could be a huge benefit. The Dodgers would have the pieces by offering someone out of the Matt Kemp, Clayton Kersaw, James McDonald, Chin-Lung Hu range. Who knows, it might take all of them. They have a chance.
Cardinals (not likely) They have been named as a possibility because they have Colby Rasmus to offer. They’d have to give up their best prospect, other prospects, and all of their money to get Peavy. With all of the other holes the Cards have, I don’t know if they would want to do that.
Red Sox (not likely) I don’t know if they have the pieces, but they’ll have to at least check in. It might be smarter for them to sign CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets, anyway. Why give out top prospects when you could just sign a starter for big money. It doesn’t make a lot of sense for them.
Yankees (not likely) They’ll at least try aquiring Jake, but I don’t know if they have the pieces to get it done. Even if they do, wouldn’t it just be smarter to overpay and sign Sabathia than to sell the farm for Peavy. I could only see this if they miss out on CC. I would be surprised to see him go there, even with Sabathia not in the Bronx.
Rangers (not likely) They would love to have him, and also have the pieces to aquire him. The only problem is Peavy’s no-trade-clause. Why would he waive it to go from Petcoe Park to Arlington. He has set himself up for another big contract after this one ends. He could lose millions by playing at Arlington over Petcoe. If one of the teams would pay him 20 million, he might waive it. But then the contract turns from what is an affordable 60 million to 80 million for 4 years. That isn’t much of a bargain anymore. So if Peavy didn’t have a NTC, then he could be a Ranger, but the problem is that he does.